President Obama is passing out rose-colored glasses to voters...

Desirous of propping up what in reality is a political weakness, President Obama took to the teleprompter last week and crowed about the nation's official unemployment rate, 8.3%.  The President also crowed about the number of unemployed Americans falling by 339k in January 2009, noting that this represented the 5th largest drop since Inauguration Day 2009.

"Let's take a look at the economy as I do."

It's nice the President is so rosy when, in fact, the dark storm clouds hovering over the nation's economy still haven't receded, 3+ years into his administration.

There were 12.8M unemployed in January 2012 with 43% of the unemployed having been out of work for 6+ months.  More disturbingly, there were ~1.2M additional Americans classified as not participating in the labor force.  Including those people in the nation's official unemployment rate would raise the January 2012 percentage to ~9.3%.

The Motley Monk realizes that, for the President, these data are a trifling matter because, for him, what really matters is the nation's official unemployment number.  The fact is that it is down from where it had been during the greater part of his first term.

However, whether Mr. Obama likes it or not, the data indicate that the official U.S. unemployment number Mr. Obama is touting happens to be nothing short of misleading, as the official number oftentimes signals where the nation's unemployment rate will be trending.  In this case, giving the number of those classified as not participating in the labor forse, the trend is up not down.  Then, too, the Congressional Budget Office has predicted that the nation's unemployment rate will be 8.9% for the the last quarter of 2012 and will rise to 9.2% for the last quarter of 2013.

Perhaps a longitudinal view would introduce greater clarity into the discussion.

When President Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, 11.6M Americans were unemployed and 23% had been unemployed for 6+ months.  Six months later, 29% of the unemployed were unemployed 6+ months, representing a 6% increase.  Okay, that was all President George W. Bush's fault.  But, comparing those data to the January 2012 official data, the nation's official unemployment rate is .5% higher than it was on Inauguration Day 2009.  Moreover, if those workers who have dropped out of the labor force as well as those who could only find part-time work are factored into the equation, the nation's unemployment rate would be ~1% higher than it was on Inauguration Day 2009.

So, the President is arguing: "Think about where the nation's economy would be if I hadn't miraculously saved it through my policies!"

There simply is no proof for this assertion unless, of course, one is a disciple of Paul Krugman and discussed what also could have been if there had been a second stimulus.

"Uh, oh!  I'm not sure I like what I see.  What does
David Axelrod have to say about the numbers?"

All of this leaves The Motley Monk wondering, "Will the nation's voters be wearing Mr. Obama's rose-colored glasses on Election Day in November 2012?"

Perhaps everything will depend upon how an adoring mainstream press reports the facts concerning the economy during President Obama's tenure in office.


Let the discussion begin....